Convection-permitting models: a step-change in rainfall forecasting

Threshold Models for Rainfall and Convection

1. Estimates for the proof 2 1.1. Estimating the error in terms of ξk and ζk 2 1.2. ∑N−1 k=1 ETN [|ξk|] = O(λ−1/2) 3 1.3. ETN [ζ 2 k ] = O(λ −1/2) 3 1.4. ETc [sup0≤t≤T Et] = O(λ−1/2) 4 2. Proof of Lemma 4.2 5 3. Proof of Lemma 4.3 6 4. Calculation of the Moments of the jumping time and First Passage time using the Fokker-Planck equation 7 4.1. The Moments of the Jumping Time τ k 7 4.2. The mome...

Comparative Study Among Different Time Series Models for Monthly Rainfall Forecasting in Shiraz Synoptic Station, Iran

In this research, monthly rainfall of Shiraz synoptic station from March 1971 to February 2016 was studied using different time series models by ITSM Software. Results showed that the ARMA (1,12) model based on Hannan-Rissanen method was the best model which fitted to the data. Then, to assess the verification and accuracy of the model, the monthly rainfall for 60 months (from March 2011 to Feb...

GEWEX Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling Workshop

Threshold Models for Rainfall and Convection: Deterministic versus Stochastic Triggers

Abstract. This paper investigates stochastic models whose dynamics switch depending on the state/regime of the system. Such models have been called “hybrid switching diffusions” and exhibit “sliding dynamics” with noise. Here the aim is an application to models of rainfall, convection, and water vapor, where two states/regimes are considered: precipitation and non-precipitation. Regime changes ...

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Near-Convection- Permitting and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles